When You Retire
Matters.
Bring an IRA balance and an annual withdrawal. We'll show how the same dollars would have played out across two very different historical S&P 500 decades — same balance, same withdrawal, only the calendar changes.
In this hypothetical illustration, Tom retires in January 2000 — into a decade that opened with a crash. Ted retires in January 2013 — into a decade that closed with one. The Market Dragon™ visits both. The decade they retire into changes the journey.
For individuals approaching or in retirement who are evaluating sequence-of-returns risk. The figures generated below are hypothetical and illustrative — not a projection of any individual's actual results.
Calculations run locally in your browser. This is an educational illustration — not personalized financial advice.
Calculating the illustration…
| End of Year | Return | Withdrawal | IRA Balance |
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| End of Year | Return | Withdrawal | IRA Balance |
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Illustrative difference between Tom and Ted after 10 years — same starting balance, same withdrawal, same index, different historical retirement decade.
Same Returns. Same Average.
Different Outcome.
Tom and Ted lived through different decades — different returns. So a fair question is: was that really sequence-of-returns risk, or just the luck of which decade they retired into? Here's a controlled experiment. Same set of 10 returns. Same arithmetic mean. Played two ways.
| Year | Return | Withdrawal | IRA Balance |
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| Year | Return | Withdrawal | IRA Balance |
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Same 10 returns. Same 7.0% arithmetic mean. Same geometric mean. The gap is order alone.
A 20% decline in retirement is not the same as a 20% decline in accumulation.
During the accumulation years, time and ongoing contributions repair the damage. In retirement, withdrawals lock the loss in. A bear market at the start of retirement sells shares at the worst possible prices and leaves fewer of them to participate in the recovery. A bear market at the end of a long bull run lands on a portfolio that has already grown — same percentage, much smaller share of the journey. The historical comparison shows how different retirement decades can shape outcomes. The controlled example shows why the order of returns matters when withdrawals are being taken.
You can control the structure your plan brings to it.
You can control the structure.
Your Retire REGAL® Review
No one can predict which decade a retirement will land in. The REGAL Stronghold™ planning framework is designed to help retirement income remain more resilient across varied market conditions — by addressing the conditions that can make sequence-of-returns risk most damaging, including the need to draw from a portfolio during periods of volatility. A complimentary review walks through your balance, your withdrawal plan, and the structure underneath — together. Use of this calculator does not create an advisory relationship.
Schedule My ReviewHYPOTHETICAL ILLUSTRATION: All figures shown by this calculator are hypothetical. Part I — the historical comparison — uses S&P 500 calendar-year total returns (dividends reinvested) for the periods 2000–2009 ("Tom") and 2013–2022 ("Ted"). The two periods were selected by Owens Financial Group to illustrate how different retirement decades can shape outcomes; other ten-year periods would produce materially different results, and these particular periods are not intended to represent any expected future return. Part II — the controlled experiment (Dragon Fire Early / Dragon Fire Later) — uses a constructed 10-year set of annual returns shown in two different orders to isolate sequence-of-returns risk. The constructed returns are not historical index returns and are used solely for educational illustration. In both sections, calculations assume an annual withdrawal taken at the start of each year that is either held constant in dollar terms or grown 3% per year for inflation, depending on the user's selection; no investment management fees, no transaction costs, and no taxes. An actual managed portfolio would reflect fees and expenses that would reduce returns, and IRA withdrawals are generally taxable as ordinary income. Results do not reflect any actual client account, model portfolio, or specific investment product. An investor cannot invest directly in the S&P 500 Index, which is unmanaged. Index data: S&P Dow Jones Indices.
ADVISORY SERVICES: Investment advisory services are offered through Foundations Investment Advisors, LLC ("Foundations"), an SEC registered investment adviser. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, legal, or tax advice. Any historical performance data is solely illustrative and provided as general information and is not a prediction of any future results or any past results for any specific client of Foundations. This page and its contents do not make any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment, or planning strategy is suitable for any specific person. Personalized investment advice can only be rendered after the engagement of Foundations, execution of required documentation (including a client agreement), and receipt of required disclosures. Use of this calculator does not create an advisory relationship. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss, including a total loss of money invested. Any past performance is no guarantee of future results. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Foundations and its advisors are properly licensed or exempt from licensure; Foundations reserves the right to accept or reject any prospective client. For more information about us, please go to https://adviserinfo.sec.gov and search by our firm name or by our CRD #175083.
INTENDED AUDIENCE: This illustration is intended for individuals approaching or in the withdrawal phase of retirement who are evaluating sequence-of-returns risk. It is not designed for, and may not be relevant to, accumulation-phase investors or those whose financial situations and objectives differ materially from this audience.
INVESTMENT RISK: All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Sequence-of-returns risk and market volatility cannot be eliminated. The information on this page is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as personalized investment advice.
PROPRIETARY FRAMEWORKS: The Retire REGAL® Process and REGAL Stronghold™ are proprietary planning frameworks developed by Owens Financial Group, LLC. They do not represent specific investment products or guarantee outcomes. Retire REGAL®, REGAL Stronghold™, Five Foemen of Retirement™, Income Hydra™, Tax Kraken™, Legislative Leviathan™, Market Dragon™, Market Dragon Timing Test™, Health Basilisk™, Five Realms of Retirement™, Permission Number™, License to Spend™, Care to Roar™, and Nitrogen Score™ are trademarks of Owens Financial Group, LLC.
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